National Long-Term Care Survey

Results of Search for Publications by NLTCS section: Mathematical Models

A Compartment Model Approach to the Estimation of Tumor Incidence and Growth: Investigation of a Model of Cancer Latency.  Tolley HD, Burdick D, Manton KG, Stallard E. Biometrics. 1974. 34(3):377-389.

A data perspective on long-term care.  Liu K. Gerontologist. 1994. 34(4):476. ProQuest.

A Linear Models Application of Competing Risks to Multiple Causes of Death.  Tolley HD, Manton KG, Poss Sharon Sandomirsky. Biometrics. 1978. 34:581-591. Abstract.

A Linear Models Approach to the Study of Current Mortality Experience.  Manton KG, Poss Sharon Sandomirsky, Tolley HD. Center for Demographic Studies. 1984. Duke University.

A mathematical typology analysis of DSM-III-R personality disorder classification: grade of membership technique.   Nurnberg HG, Woodbury MA, Bogenschutz MP. Compr Psychiat. 1999. 40(1):61-71. Abstract.

A method for adjusting capitation payments to managed care plans using multivariate patterns of health and functioning: the experience of Social/Health Maintenance Organizations.  Manton KG, Newcomer R, Vertrees JC, Lowrimore GR, Harrington C. Medical Care. 1995. 33(12):1228-31. Abstract.

A Multidimensional Approach To Case Mix For Home Health Services.  Manton KG, Hausner T. Health Care Financing Review. 1987. 8(4):37-54. Abstract.

A Multiple Cause of Death Analysis of Hypertension-Related Mortality in North Carolina, 1968-1977.  Wing Steve, Manton KG. American Journal of Public Health. 1981. 71(8):823-830. Abstract.

A Multivariate Event History Model Based Upon Fuzzy States: Estimation From Longitudinal Surveys With Informative Nonresponse.  Manton KG, Stallard E, Woodbury MA. Journal of Official Statistics. 1991. 7(3):261-293.

A multivariate-analysis of disability and health, and its change over time in the national channeling demonstration data.   Manton KG, Vertrees JC, Clark RF. Gerontologist. 1993. 33(5):610-618. Abstract.

A Random-Walk Model of Human Mortality and Aging.  Woodbury MA, Manton KG. Theoretical Population Biology. 1977. 11:37-48.

A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney Method For Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates.   Yi Z, Land KC. Demography. 2001. 38(1):17-28. Abstract.

A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions.   Manton KG, Stallard E, Burdick D, Tolley HD. International Journal of Epidemiology. 1979. 8(3):283-291. Abstract.

A stochastic compartment model representation of chronic disease dependence: Technique for evaluating parameters of partially unobserved age inhomogeneous stochastic processes.   Manton KG, Stallard E. Theoretical Population Biology. 1980. 18(1):57-75.

A study of depressive typologies using grade of membership analysis.   Davidson J, Woodbury MA, Pelton S, Krishnan R. Psychol Med. 1988. 18(1):179-189. Abstract.

A study of somatization disorder in a community population utilizing grade of membership analysis.   Swartz MS, Blazer DG, Woodbury MA, George LK, Manton KG. Psychiatric Developments. 1987. 5(3):219-237. Abstract.

A Theoretical Model of the Physiological Dynamics of Circulatory Disease in Human Populations.  Woodbury MA, Manton KG. Human Biology. 1983. 55(2)417-441.

A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: Analysis of spatial gradients in county lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties.   Manton KG, Woodbury MA, Stallard E. Biometrics. 1981. 37:259-269.

About One System of Intuitionistic Analysis Equivalent to the Classical Analysis.  Kovtun, MR. Moscow University Mathematics Bulletin. 1983. 1:41-44.

Active life expectancy estimates for US elderly population: Multidimenstional continuous mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982 to 1996.  Manton KG, Land KC. Demography. 2000. 37(3):253-65. Abstract.

Adjustment for Bias in Observed Changes in Period Tempo of Fertility and An Extension of Ryder's Basic Translation Equation.   Zeng Yi, Land KC. Working Manuscript. 1900. Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, N.C. Full Text. Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3.

Alternative Models for the Heterogeneity of Mortality Risks Among the Aged.  Manton KG, Stallard E, Vaupel JW. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1986. 81(395):635-644. Jstor.

An actuarial perspective on the Social Security Trustees Report.   Schobel BD, Burrows EE, Eli N, Donkar RG, Goss SG, Gustafson CD, Kleiber EJ, LaBombarde AR, Schreitmueller RG, Solomon RL, Stallard E, Uccello CE. Issue Brief, American Academy of Actuaries. 2002. April. Full Text.

An Extension of the Sign Test for Replicated Measurements.  Woodbury MA, Manton KG, Woodbury LA. Biometrics. 1977. 33:453-461.

Analysis of Hospital Length of Stay and Discharge Destination Using Hazard Functions with Unmeasured Heterogeneity.   Picone G, Wilson MR, Chou SY. Research supported by University of South Florida and NIA. 2001. Reprint.

Analysis of the components of CHD risk in the Framingham Study: New multivarite procedures for the analysis of chronic disease development.   Manton KG, Woodbury MA, Stallard E. Comput Biomed Res. 1979. 12:109-123.

Antisocial and related disorders in a southern community - An application of grade of membership analysis.   Jordan BK, Swartz MS, George LK, Woodbury MA, Blazer DG. Journal of Nerv Ment Dis. 1989. 177(9):529-541.

Applications of the grade of membership technique to event history analysis - Extensions to multivariate unobserved heterogeneity.   Manton KG, Stallard E, Woodbury MA, Yashin AI. Mathematical Modeling. 1986. 7(9-12):1375-1391.

Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.  Riggan WB, Manton KG, Creason JP, Woodbury MA, Stallard E. Environ Health Perspect. 1991. 96:223-38. Link.

Assumptions used to project Social Security's financial condition.   Schobel BD, Burrows EE, Eli N, Donkar RG, Goss SG, Gustafson CD, Kleiber EJ, LaBombarde AR, Schreitmueller RG, Solomon RL, Stallard E, Uccello CE. Issue Brief, American Academy of Actuaries. 2001. May. Full Text.

Bioactuarial models of national mortality time series data: Strategies for making full information estimates of national morbidity distributions.   Manton KG, Stallard E. Health Care Financing Review. 1982. 3(3):89-106.

Brookings/ICF Long Term Care Financing Model: Model Assumptions Executive Summary.   Kennell David L, Alecxih Lisa Maria B, Wiener Joshua M and Hanley Raymond J. US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of Disability, Aging and Long-Term Care Policy (DALTCP). 1992. Feb. Executive Summary.

Case-mix controlled service use and expenditures in the social health maintenance organization demonstration.   Newcomer R, Manton KG, Harrington C, Yordi C, Vertrees J. Journal of Gerontology: Ser A-Biol Sci Med Sci. 1995. 50(1):M35-M44. Abstract

Changes in the Coincidence of the Boundaries and Populations of Central Cities.  Smith Joel, Bromley David, Manton KG. Social Forces. 1979. 57(3):931-951.

Characterizing latent structure: factor analytic and grade of membership models.   Marini MM, Li XL, Fan PL. Sociological Methodology. 1996. 26:133-164.

Chronic disease models.   Manton KG. The Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. 1997. Armitage P, Colton T, Eds.). Wiley:New York.

Classification of taste responses in brain-stem - Membership in fuzzy-sets.   Erickson RP, Dilorenzo PM, Woodbury MA. Journal of Neurophysiol. 1994. 71(6):2139-2150. Abstract.

Commentary on "Two-parameter logistic and Weibull equations provide better fits to survival data from isogenic populations of Caernorhabditis elegans in axenic culture than does the Gompertz model".   Manton KG. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences. 2000. (in press). Full Text

Compartment Model Methods in Estimating Cancer Costs.  Tolley DH, Manton KG, Stallard E. Society of Actuaries. 1983. 35(1983)399-413.

Convex models of high dimensional discrete data.   Woodbury MA, Manton KG, Tolley HD. Ann Inst Stat Math. 1997. 49(2):371-393.

Correcting for Nonavailability Bias in Surveys by Weighting Based on Number of Callbacks.  Potthoff RF, Manton KG, Woodbury MA. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1993. 88(424):1197-1207.

Dementia-praecox and manic-depressive insanity in 1908 - A grade of membership analysis of the kraepelinian dichotomy.   Jablensky A, Woodbury MA. Eur Arch Psych Clin Neurosci. 1995. 245(4-5):202-209. Abstract

Dirichlet generalizations of latent-class models.   Potthoff RF, Manton KG, Woodbury MA. Journal of Classification. 2000. 17:315-325. Springer.

Disability and health-status - Concepts and measurement in the health interview survey.   Corder LS, Stewart A. Biometrics. 1979. 35(4):885-885.

Discussion of "Combining life table data" by GW Fellingham and HD Tolley.  Stallard E. North American Actuarial Journal. 1999. 3(3):38-39.

Does the mini-mental state measure distinct areas of cognitive- functioning - A grade of membership analysis of cerad data.   Fillenbaum G, Woodbury MA, Fillenbaum G, Mohs R. Ann Neurol. 1993. 34(2):260-260.

Dynamic paradigms for human mortality and aging.   Manton KG. Journal of Gerontology: Biological Sciences. 1999. 54A:B247-B254. Figure 1. Figure 2.

Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies.   Manton KG, Poss SS. Demography. 1979. 16(2):313-327.

Effects of unobserved and partially observed covariate processes on system failure: A review of models and estimation strategies.   Yashin AI, Manton KG. Statistical Science. 1997. 12(1):20-34.

Estimates of US multiple cause life tables.   Manton KG, Stallard E, Poss SS. Demography. 1980. 17(1): 85-102.

Evaluating partially observed survival histories: Retrospective evaluation and projections of covariate trajectories.   Yashin AI, Manton KG, Lowrimore G. Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis. 1997. 13(1):1-13. Wiley.

Forecasting methods for HIV/AIDS and aging.   Manton KG, Stallard E. Research on Aging. 1998. Ory, MG, Zablotsky, D. eds. 20(6):846-864.

Fuzzy monotone functions and applications.   Lee ET, Chou TS. Kybernetes. 2001. 30(1-2):84-97.

Generalizations Of The Gompertz Model For Describing Mortality At Advanced Ages: The Role Of Time Varying Covariates.  Manton KG, Stallard E. NIA and Duke University. 1993. Workshop on Mortality of the Oldest-Old, Duke University, March 5-7.

Genetic and environmental factors in duration studies: multivariate frailty models and estimation strategies.  Yashin AI, Manton KG, Iachine IA. Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. 1996. 1(2):115-120.

Genetic and environmental factors in the etiology of chronic diseases: Multivariate frailty models and estimation strategies.   Yashin AI, Manton KG, Iachine IH. Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. 1996. 1(2):115-120.

Grade of membership analysis of depression-related psychiatric disorders.   Woodbury MA, Manton KG. Sociol Methods Res. 1989. 18(1):126-163.

Grade of membership generalizations and aging research.   Manton KG, Woodbury MA. Experimental Aging Research. 1991. 17(4):217-226.  Abstract.

Grade of membership models in low dimensions.   Wachter KW. Stat Pap. 1999. 40(4):439-457.

Grade-of-membership sibpair linkage analysis maps IDDM11 to chromosome 14q24.3-q31.   Corder EH, Woodbury MA, Manton KG, Field LL. Annals of Human Genetics. 2001. 65:387-394. Full Text.

Grades of Membership analysis: Models to analyze categorical data based on a convex geometry.   Woodbury MA, Tolley HD, Manton KG. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. 2001. in press.

Health and mortality of the elderly: the grade of membership method, classification and determination.   Portrait F, Lindeboom M, Deeg D. Health Economics. 1999. 8(5):441-457.

Health loss due to unobserved morbidity: a design based approach to minimize nonsampling error in active life expectation estimates.  Corder LS, Woodbury MA, Manton KG. John Libbey Eurotext and Les Editions. 1993. INSERM, France.

Health Specification and Biased Estimates of Wealth Effects: Fuzzy vs Crisp Health indices and the Performance of Wealth in a Competing Risks Model of Nursing Home Entry and Death.  Headen AE, Woodbury MA. Working Papers. 1995.

Heterogeneity and its effects on mortality measurement.   Chapter 12 in Methodologies for the Collection and Analysis of Mortality Data. Manton KG, Stallard E. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Vallin J, Pollard JH, Heligman L, Eds. 1984. Ordina Editions. pp. 265- 299 Full Text

Individualizing user interfaces - Application of the grade of membership (gom) model for development of fuzzy user classes.   Mitchell KC, Woodbury MA, Norcio AF. Inf Sci-Appl. 1994. 1(1):9-29.

Inequalities of life: Statistical analysis and modeling perspectives.   Manton KG, Yashin AI. Chapter 4 in Age Between Nature and Culture. 1999. Sauvain-Dugerdil, C. (Ed). University of Geneva: Geneva Switzerland. Full Text. Table 1.

Information-processing in gifted versus nongifted African-American, Latino, Filipino, and White children - Speeded versus nonspeeded paradigms.   Saccuzzo DP, Johnson NE, Guertin TL. Intelligence. 1994. 19(2):219-243.

Interpolating Demographic Schedules With Changing Age Pattern.   Zeng Yi. Working Manuscript. 1900. Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, N.C. Full Text. Tables 1 - 6. Table 7.

Intervention Effects Among A Collection Of Risks.  Tolley HD, Manton KG. Society of Actuaries Transactions. 1991. 43:443-468.

Large sample properties of estimates of a discrete grade of membership model.   Tolley HD, Manton KG. Ann Inst Stat Math. 1992. 44(1):85-95.

Life table techniques for multiple cause mortality.   Manton KG, Tolley HD, Poss SS. Demography. 1976. 13(4):541-564.

Likelihood methods integrating multiple sources of data in mortality analyses.   Manton KG, Tolley HD, Lowrimore GR, Yashin AI. Proceedings ISI. 1997. 51 Session, Istanbul, August 18-26.

Likelihood methods of modeling using incompletely observed processes.   Tolley HD, Manton KG, Lowrimore GR, Yashin AI. International Statistics Bulletin. 1997.

Limits to Human Life Expectancy: Evidence, Prospects, and Implications.  Manton KG, Stallard E, Tolley HD. Population and Development Review. 1991. 17(4):603-637.

Long-Term Care: Actuarial Issues in Designing Voluntary Federal-Private LTC Insurance Programs.   Barney HL, Bodnar VL, Cheung MA, Powell AV, Stallard E, Trapnell GR, Yee RK. American Academy of Actuaries:Washington, DC. 1999. Monograph. Reprint.

Longitudinal changes in chronic disease risk factor groups.   Woodbury MA, Manton KG. Modelling Noncommunicable Diseases. 1996. Morganstern W, Ed. Springer-Verlag:Heidelberg.

Markov Network Analysis: Suggestions for Innovations in Covariance Structure Analysis.  Woodbury MA, Manton KG, Siegler IC. Experimental Aging Research. 1982. 8(3):135-140.

Mathematical typology - Grade of membership technique for obtaining disease definition.   Woodbury MA, Clive J, Garson A. Comput Biomed Res. 1978. 11(3):277-298.

Maximum likelihood estimation of a stochastic compartment model of cancer latency: Mortality among white females.   Manton KG, Stallard E. Comput Biomed Res. 1979. 12:313-325.

Methods for Combining Ancillary Data in Stochastic Compartment Models of Cancer Mortality: Generalization of Heterogeneity Models.  Manton KG, Lowrimore Gene, Yashin Anatoli. Mathmetical Population Studies. 1993. 4(2)133-147.

Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations.   Manton KG, Stallard E, Vaupel JW. Demography. 1981. 18:389-410.

Methods for evaluating the heterogeneity of aging processes in human populations using vital statistics data: Explaining the black/white mortality crossover by a model of mortality selection.   Manton KG, Stallard E. Human Biology. 1981. 53(1):47-67.

Methods for Projecting the Future Size and Health Status of the US Elderly Population.  Manton KG, Stallard E, Singer BH. in Studies in the Economics of Aging, David A Wise (Ed.), University of Chicago Press. 1994.

Methods for the analysis of mortality risks across heterogeneous small populations: Examination of space-time gradients in cancer mortality in North Carolina counties 1970-75.   Manton KG, Stallard E. Demography. 1981. 18(2):217-230.

Minority use of community long-term care services: a comparative analysis.  B Miller, RT Campbell, L Davis, S Furner, A Giachello, T Prohaska, JE Kaufman, M Li and C Perez. Journal of Gerontology: Ser B-Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 1996. 51(2):S70-S81. Abstract.

Modeling complex biological systems using fuzzy set principles: Methods and models.   Woodbury MA, Manton KG. Comments on Theoretical Biology. 1996. 4(1):1-29.

Modeling Lifetime Nursing Home Use Under Assumptions Of Better Health.   Laditka SB. Journal of Gerontology: Ser B-Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 1998. 53(4):S177-87. Abstract. ProQuest.

Modeling Medicare Costs of PACE Populations.   Robinson J, Karon S. Health Care Financing Review. 2000. 21(3):149-170. Abstract. ProQuest.

Modelling fuzzy sets using object-oriented techniques.   Wong GYC, Chun HW. Lecture Notes in Artifical Intelligence. 1999. 1611:23-32.

Models for forecasting chronic disease processes in adult and elderly populations: Effects of stochasticity.   Manton KG, Dowd E. Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics. 1999. 4(1):11-18. Abstract.

Mortality model based on delays in progression of chronic diseases: Alternatives to cause elimination model.   Manton KG, Patrick CH, Stallard E. Public Health Reports. 1980. 95:580-588.

Multidimensional disability/mortality trajectories at ages 65 and over: The impact of state dependence.   Manton KG, Land KC. Soc Indic Res. 2000. 51(2):193-221. Full Text. Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Table 4. Table 5. Table 6. Table 7. Table 8. Table 9. Table 10.

Multiple Cause Models of Disease Dependency.  Tolley HD, Manton KG. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal. 1983. pp. 211-226.

Multivariate procedures to describe clinical staging of melanoma.   Manton KG, Woodbury MA, Wrigley JM, Cohen HJ. Methods Inf Med. 1991. 30(2):111-116. Abstract.

National surveys and the health and functioning of the elderly - The effects of design and content.   Corder LS, Manton KG. Journal of Am Stat Assoc. 1991. 86(414):513-525.

Past and Future Life Expectancy Increases at Later Ages: Their Implications for the Linkage of Chronic Morbidity, Disability, and Mortality.  Manton KG. Journal of Gerontology. 1986. 41(5):672-681. Abstract.

Patterns of intellectual aging - A grade of membership analysis.   Siegler IC, Manton KG, Woodbury MA. Gerontologist. 1984. 24:138-138.

Practice styles in the management of acute low-back-pain - A grade of membership analysis.   Maetzel A, Hogg-Johnson SA, Woodbury MA, Bombardier C. Arthritis Rheum. 1995. 38(9):1389-1389.

Projecting Long-Term Care Use and Cost, Development of Prevalence-Based Long-Term Care Financing Models.   Gruenberg Leonard. The Long-Term Care Data Institute, Cambridge, MA. 1998. July. Abstract.

Projections Of Ohio's Older Disabled Population: 2015 To 2050.   Mehdizadeh Shahla A, Kunkel Suzanne R, Ritchey P Neal. Scripps Gerontology Center, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio 45056. 2001. July. Full Text.

Quantative measures for evaluating Social Security reform proposals.   Schobel BD, Burrows EE, Gustafson CD, Kleiber EJ, LaBombarde AR, Schreitmueller RG, Stallard E, Uccello CD. Issue Brief, American Academy of Actuaries. 2002. April. Full Text.

Relationship classification using grade of membership analysis - A typology of sibling relationships in later life.   Gold DT, Woodbury MA, George LK. Journal of Gerontology. 1990. 45(2):S43-S51.

Sex differences in human mortality and aging at late ages: The effect of mortality selection and state dynamics.  Manton KG, Woodbury MA, Stallard E. Gerontologist. 1995. 35(5):597-608. Abstract.

Strategies for analyzing ecological health data: Model for the biological risk of individuals.   Manton KG, Stallard E, Riggan WB. Statistics in Medicine. 1982. 1:163-181. Full Text

Strategies for collating diverse scientific evidence in the analysis of population health characteristics: Bioactuarial models of chronic disease mortality for the elderly.   Manton KG, Liu K. Sociological Methods and Research. 1985. 13(3):407-31.

Symptom profiles of psychiatric disorders based on graded disease classes - An illustration using data from the WHO international pilot study of schizophrenia.   Manton KG, Korten A, Woodbury MA, Anker M, Jablensky A. Psychol Med. 1994. 24(1):133-144. Abstract.

The economic impact of health policy interventions.   Manton KG, Stallard E, Tolley HD. Risk Analysis. 1983. 3(4):265-275. Full Text

The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality.  Yashin AI, Manton KG, Woodbury MA, Stallard E. Journal of Math Biol. 1995. 34(1):1-16. Abstract.

The Impact Of Heterogeneity In Individual Frailty On The Dynamics Of Mortality.  Vaupel JW, Manton KG, Stallard E. Demography. 1979. 16(3):439-454.

The Influence of Disease Risk Factors on Health Status and Mortality Projections for Aged Populations.  Dowd JE, Manton KG, Stallard E, Woodbury MA. United Nations, World Health Organization, IUSSP Committee On Adult Mortality, City of Sendei, and Japan Aging Research Center. 1993. Conference on Health And Mortality Trends Among Elderly Populations: Determinants And Implications, Sendei City, Japan, June 21 to 25.

The Structure of Urban Mortality: A methodological Study of Hannover, Germany (I).  Myers GC, Manton KG. International Journal of Epidemiology. 1977. 6(3):203-212.

The use of grade of membership analysis to evaluate and modify diagnosis-related groups.   Manton KG, Vertrees JC. Medical Care. 1984. 22(12):1067-1082.

The Use Of Grade-Of-Membership Techniques To Estimate Regression Relationships.  Manton KG, Woodbury MA, Stallard E, Corder LS. Sociological Methodology. 1992. 22:321-381. JSTOR.

The vital role of economists in realizing medicine's golden age.   Manton KG. Chronicle of Higher Education. 2000. Feb, 18.

Theoretical And Analytic Issues In The Study Of Co-morbidity At Advanced Ages.  Manton KG. Gerontological Society of America. 1989. Minneapolis, November 17-21 Meeting.

Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: Multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz.   Manton KG, Stallard E, Woodbury MA, Dowd JE. Journal of Gerontology. 1994. 49(4):B169-90. Abstract

Use of medicare services before and after introduction of the prospective payment system.   Manton KG, Woodbury MA, Vertrees JC, Stallard E. Health Services Research. 1993. 28(3):269-92. Abstract

What's the fuss about the compression of mortality?   Manton KG, Singer B. Chance. 1994. 7(4):21-30. Full Text